Skip to main content

Table 1 Number of contacts during the Tawaf and Sa’ay rituals (Monte Carlo Simulation)

From: Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management: case of Hajj pilgrimage

 

Total number of pilgrims

100

1,000

2,500

5,000

7,000

10,000

Tawaf

Total number of contacts

6.7

658

4,007

15,656

29,846

59,224

Pilgrims with at least one contact

12

703

2,346

4,973

6,993

9,998

Average individual contacts±0.95CI

0.12±0.03

1.30±0.03

3.21±0.03

6.20±0.06

8.51±0.04

11.85±0.03

Maximum individual contacts±0.95CI

1.50±0.31

7.1±0.58

12.4±0.63

20.3±1.04

23.8±0.67

30.7±0.88

Sa’ay

Total number of contacts

6.4

713

4,452

17,876

35,442

72,358

Pilgrims with at least one contact

12.5

764

2,347

4,996

6,999

9,999

Average individual contacts±0.95CI

0.16±0.04

1.43±0.03

3.58±0.03

7.19±0.03

10.06±0.01

14.4±0.02

Maximum individual contacts±0.95CI

1.60±0.40

6.3±0.40

11.1±0.58

16.9±0.43

22.1±0.90

27.8±0.87